1. Excess Supply from Previous Season
Cumin stocks from last season remain unusually high, especially at the farmer level. Despite steady arrivals in mandis, only a small portion is being sold — the rest is being carried forward. This surplus keeps prices subdued, as buyers feel no urgency to purchase at higher rates.
2. Weak Export Demand
Though exports were strong earlier in the year, fresh overseas demand has slowed. A key reason is that the U.S. has imposed a 25% import duty on Indian cumin, making it less competitive. Other buyers, including from the Middle East and Europe, are also waiting for prices to fall further or seeking alternative sources like Turkey and Syria.
3. Domestic Demand Is Soft
Within India, consumption has not picked up strongly either. Traders and bulk buyers are adopting a cautious approach, avoiding large purchases in anticipation of even lower prices. This “wait and watch” behaviour contributes to stagnant demand.
4. Upcoming New Crop
Although arrivals from the new harvest are still some time away, expectations of a healthy crop next season are already influencing the market. If weather holds steady and acreage remains good, buyers expect more cumin supply in the coming months — keeping current prices under check.
5. Global Competition Increasing
India is the largest exporter of cumin, but it’s facing growing competition from other countries. Turkey, Afghanistan and Syria are increasing their cumin production, and their exports are gaining traction in global markets. This reduces India’s pricing power.
6. Market Sentiment Is Bearish
Current trader sentiment is broadly pessimistic. With no strong triggers on the demand side and a supply overhang, there’s little incentive for prices to rebound. In fact, some traders are offloading their old stock quickly to avoid losses, further depressing prices.
What Could Turn the Market Around
Cumin prices may still recover if the following happen:
- A sharp revival in export orders (especially if trade tensions with the U.S. ease)
- Weather disruptions that damage upcoming crops and reduce supply
- A spike in domestic consumption during festival or wedding seasons
- Government intervention or incentives to boost spice exports
But unless such factors emerge soon, the market is expected to stay subdued for the foreseeable future.